Blog Archives
New year, new companies
I thought I’d start off the New Year with a FAQ: “How do I get to talk to you about what my company is offering?” This is closely related to one of the questions that I get most frequently at conferences and networking events: “How do I get on an analyst’s radar screen?”
The answer to these questions is pretty straightforward: Make a briefing request. A big analyst shop like my employer, Gartner, has a formal process that lets any vendor request to brief analysts. We, at least, will take briefings, without prejudice, from clients and non-clients alike. (It’s just that clients are entitled to advice and feedback; non-clients are not, although we’ll generally engage in dialogs if the non-client has something interesting to say.)
To convince an analyst to take a first-time briefing, though, you need to have an elevator pitch that makes an analyst say, “Hey, this is relevant to my coverage and this is a vendor that’s doing something interesting.” Alternatively, you need to have won some high-profile deals or otherwise show evidence that you’re going to be making waves in the market. Start-ups often fail to articulate what the compelling value proposition is, or otherwise demonstrate that they’re important to know about, which leads analysts to decide that it’s not yet worth taking the time to listen to a briefing.
Analysts love cool new vendors. Talking to smart people who are doing cool things and have great insights into their markets is one of the best parts of being an analyst.
If you’re an innovative or rapidly-growing provider in my coverage space, and we’ve never spoken before, I encourage you to make a briefing request. I’m particularly interested in cloud infrastructure start-ups, at the moment.
Peer influence and the use of Magic Quadrants
The New Scientist has an interesting article commenting that the long tail may be less potent than previously postulated — and that peer pressure creates a winner-take-all situation.
I was jotting this blog post about Gartner clients and the target audience for the Magic Quadrant, and that article got me thinking about the social context for market research and vendor recommendations.
Gartner’s client base is primarily mid-sized business to large enterprise — our typical client is probably $100 million or more in revenue, but we also serve a lot of technology companies who are smaller than that. Beyond that subscription base, though, we also talk to people at conferences; those attendees usually represent a much more diverse set of organizations. But it’s the subscription base that we mostly talk to. (I carry an unusually high inquiry load — I’ll talk to something on the order of 700 clients this year.)
Normally, I’m interested in the comprehensive range of a vendor’s business (at least insofar as it’s relevant to my coverage). When I do an MQ, though, my subscriber base is the lens through which I evaluate companies. While I’m interested in the ways vendors service small businesses at other times, when it’s in the context of an MQ, I care only about a vendor’s relevance to our clients — i.e., the IT buyers who subscribe to Gartner services and who are reading the MQ to figure out what vendors they want to short-list.
Sometimes, when vendors think about our client base, they mistakenly assume that it’s Fortune 1000 and the largest of enterprises. While we serve those companies, we have more than 10,000 client organizations — so obviously, we serve a lot more than giant entities. The customers I talk to day after day may have a single cabinet in colocation — or fifty data centers of their own. (Sometimes both.) They might have one or two servers in managed hosting, or dozens of websites deployed via multi-dozen-server contracts. They might deliver less than a TB of content per month via a CDN, or they might be one of the largest media companies on the planet, with staggering video volumes.
These clients span an enormous range of wants and needs, but they have one significant common denominator: They are the kinds of companies that subscribe to a research and advisory firm, which means they make enough tech purchases to justify the cost of a research contract, and they have a culture which values (or at least bureaucratically mandates) seeking a neutral outside opinion.
That ideal of objectivity, however, often masks something more fundamental that ties back to the article that I mentioned: namely, the fact that many clients have an insatiable hunger to know “What are companies like mine doing?“. They are not necessarily seeking best practice, but common practice. Sometimes they seek the assurance that their non-ideal situation is not dissimilar to that of their peers at similar companies. (Although the opening line of Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina — “Happy families are all alike, but every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way” — quite possibly applies to IT departments, too.)
This is also reflected in the fact that customers often have a deep desire to talk to other customers of the same vendor, on an informal and social basis. That hunger is sometimes satisfied by online forums, but the larger the company, the more reluctant they are to discuss their business in public, although they may still share freely in a one-on-one or directly personal context.
IBM was the ultimate winner-take-all company (to use the New Scientist phrase) — the company that everyone was buying from, thus guaranteeing that you were unlikely to get fired buying IBM. Arguably, it and its brethren still are at the fat forefront of the outsourced IT infrastructure market share curve, while the bazillion hosting companies out there are spread out over the long tail. Even within the narrower confines of pure hosting, which is a highly fragmented market, and despite massive amounts of online information, peer influence has concentrated market share in the hands of relatively few vendors.
To quote the article: Which leads to a curious puzzle: why, when we have so much information at our fingertips, are we so concerned with what our peers like? Don’t we trust our own judgement? Watts thinks it is partly a cognitive problem. Far from liberating us, the proliferation of choice that modern technology has brought is overwhelming us — making us even more reliant on outside cues to determine what we like.
So I can sum up: A Magic Quadrant is an outside cue, offering expert opinion that factors in aggregated peer opinion.
Tips for a Magic Quadrant
It has been a remarkably busy December, with my client inquiries dominated by colocation calls, and it looks like the last bit of the year’s inquiries will be rounded out with last-minute year-end deals for CDN services. I’ve published what I’m going to publish this year, so I’m focusing on my first-quarter 2009 agenda, and all the preparations that go into the Magic Quadrant for Web Hosting.
We’re looking at probably double the number of providers this year than we had last year, with the high likelihood that there’s nobody at the new providers who have gone through an MQ process in some previous life. That means a certain amount of handholding, as well as an aggressive spin-up to learn providers that we don’t know well yet — providers who are entering the enterprise space but don’t necessarily have many enterprise clients yet.
I’m going to devote a certain amount of blog space over the next couple of weeks to talking about what it’s like to do an MQ, because I imagine it’s something that both IT buyers and vendors are occasionally curious about. Keep in mind that this will be personal narrative, though; what’s true for me is not necessarily true for other analysts, including my usual partner-in-crime for this particular MQ.
The quick tips for vendors:
1. Know who Gartner is advising and therefore, what our clients care about (and thus, the products and services of yours that matter to them).
2. Be able to concisely and concretely articulate what makes you different from your competitors.
3. Have a vision of the market and be able to explain how that ties into the way that you run your company and how it ties into your product plans for its future.
4. Make sure your customer references still like you.
Cloud research
I am spending as much of my research time as possible on cloud these days, although my core coverage (colocation, hosting, and CDNs) still demands most of my client-facing time.
Reflecting the fact that hosting and cloud infrastructure services are part of the same broad market (if you’re buying service from Joyent or GoGrid or MediaTemple or the like, you’re buying hosting), the next Gartner Magic Quadrant for Web Hosting will include cloud providers. That means I’m currently busy working on an awful lot of stuff, preparatory to beginning the formal process in January. I know we’ll be dealing with a lot of vendors who have never participated in a Magic Quadrant before, which should make this next iteration personally challenging but hopefully very interesting to our clients and exciting to vendors in the space.
Anyway, I have two new research notes out today:
Web Hosting and Cloud Infrastructure Prices, North America, 2008. This defines a segmentation for the emerging cloud infrastructure services market, and provides guidance to current pricing for the various category of Web hosting services, including cloud services.
Dataquest Insight: A Service Provider Road Map to the Cloud Infrastructure Transformation. This is a note targeted at hosting companies, carriers, IT outsourcers, and others who are in, or plan to enter, the hosting or cloud infrastructure services markets. It’s a practical guide to the evolving market, with a look at product and customer segmentation, the financial impacts, and the practicalities of evolving from traditional hosting to the cloud.
Gartner clients only for those notes, sorry.
The week’s observations
My colleague Tom Bittman has written a great summary of the hot topics from the Gartner data center conference this past week.
Some personal observations as I wrap up the week…
The future of infrastructure is the cloud. I use “cloud” in a broad sense; many larger organizations will be building their own “private clouds” (which technically aren’t actually clouds, but the “private cloud” terminology has sunk in and probably won’t be easily budged). I was surprised by how many people at the conference wanted to talk to me about initial use of public clouds, how to structure cloud services within their own organizations, and what they could learn from public cloud and hosting services.
Cloud demos are extremely compelling. I was using demos of several clouds in order to make my points to people asking about cloud computing: Terremark’s Enterprise Cloud, Rackspace’s Mosso, and Amazon’s EC2 plus RightScale. I showed some screen shots off 3Tera’s website as well. I did not warn the providers that I was going to do this, and none of them were at the conference (a pity, since I suspect this would have been lead-generating). It was interesting to see how utterly fascinated people were — particularly with the Terremark offering, which is essentially a private cloud. (People were stopping me in the hallways to say, “I hear you have a really cool cloud demo.”) I was showing the trivially easy point-and-click process of provisioning a server, which, I think, provided a kind of grounding for “here is how the cloud could apply to your business”.
Colocation is really, really hot. My one-on-one schedule was crammed with colocation questions, though, as were my conversations with attendees in hallways and over meals, yet I was shocked by how many people showed up to my Friday, 8 am talk on colocation — the best-attended talk of the slot, I was told (and one cursed by lots of A/V glitches). Over the last month, we’ve seen demand accelerate and supply projections tighten — neither businesses nor data center providers can build right now.
A crazy conference week, like always, but tremendously interesting.
New CDN research notes
I have three new research notes out:
Determine Your Video Delivery Requirements. When I talk to clients, I often find that IT is trying to source a video delivery solution without having much of an idea of what the requirements actually are. This note is directed at them; it’s intended to serve as a framework for discussions with the content owners.
Toolkit: Determining Your Content Delivery Network Requirements. This toolkit consists of three Excel worksheets. The first gathers a handful of high-level requirements, in order to figure out what type of vendor you’re probably looking for. The second helps you estimate your volume and convert between the three typical measurements used (Mbps, MPVs, or GB delivered). The third is a pricing estimator and converter.
Purchasing Content Delivery Network Services. This is a practical guide to buying CDN services, targeted towards mid-sized and enterprise purchasers.
Recently-published research
Here’s a quick round-up of some of my recently-published research.
Is Amazon EC2 Right For You? This is an introduction to Amazon’s Elastic Compute Cloud, written for a mildly technical audience. It summarizes Amazon’s capabilities, the typical business case for using it, and what you’ve got to do to use it. If you’re an engineer looking for a quick briefing, or you want to show a “what this newfangled thing is” summary to your manager, or you’re an investor trying to understand what exactly it is that Amazon does, this is the document for you.
Dataquest Insight: Web Hosting, North America, 2006-2012. This is an in-depth look at the colocation and hosting business, together with market forecasts and trends. (Investors may also want to look at the Invest Implications.)
Dataquest Insight: Content Delivery Networks, North America, 2006-2012. This is an in-depth look at the CDN market, segment-by-segment, with market forecasts and trends. (Investors may also want to look at the Invest Implications.)
You’ll need to be a Gartner subscriber (or purchase the individual document) in order to view these pieces.
Upcoming research (for publication in the next month): A pricing guide for Web hosting and cloud infrastructure services; a classification scheme and service provider roadmap for cloud offerings; a toolkit for CDN requirements gathering and price estimation; a framework for gathering video requirements; and a CDN selection guide.
Blog vs. research note
I’ve been grappling with finding the right balance between blogging and writing actual research notes. I am an all-at-once writer — I’m usually at my best when I sit down and write an entire research note at one go, so it comes out as one coherent whole. A research note is something that has usually percolated about in my head for a while and is now ready to be expressed in what I hope is a bit of crystallized clarity. Problematically, though, I spend nearly my entire day on the phone with clients — I often only have 15 minutes between calls, just long enough to attend to the needs of biology and deal with my email. Eight such fragments in no way equate to an actual uninterrupted two hours, or even one hour, which makes it very hard to write substantive documents.
On the other hand, I can write a blog entry in 15 minutes, or in a bunch of 15-minute fragments, because it’s far more stream-of-consciousness. It’s unpolished thought; it can be more disjointed. It can raise questions without trying to provide answers, speculate, and be wooly maunderings rather than actionable advice. It can be trivial in the broader scheme of things, but is given power by immediacy and connectedness. It’s enormously tempting to scribble things down and just let them float out into the world. I became an analyst in part because I like to write, and it’s easy to get sucked into scribbling something whenever I get a chance.
I was googling around for the thoughts of others on this subject, and I came across Andrew Sullivan’s newly-published piece in the Atlantic, “Why I Blog“. His musings in that piece have the elegance of long contemplation, and, I think, he does an excellent job of capturing the nature of blogging, writing:
A blog is not so much daily writing as hourly writing. And with that level of timeliness, the provisionality of every word is even more pressing — and the risk of error or the thrill of prescience that much greater.
Andrew Sullivan’s piece has, perhaps, one of the best indirect answers to the whole Bloggers vs. Analysts question, as well:
A traditional writer is valued by readers precisely because they trust him to have thought long and hard about a subject, given it time to evolve in his head, and composed a piece of writing that is worth their time to read at length and to ponder. Blogs don’t do this and cannot do this — and that limits them far more than it does traditional long-form writing. A blogger will air a variety of thoughts or facts on any subject in no particular order other than that dictated by the passing of time. A writer will instead use time, synthesizing these thoughts, ordering them, weighing which points count more than others, seeing how his views evolved in the writing process itself, and responding to an editor’s perusal of a draft or two. The result is almost always more measured, more satisfying, and more enduring than a blizzard of posts.
I think the need to engage with the wider community and to be more timely will inexorably push analysts towards adding blogging to their output activities (even if not employer-recognized), but it certainly won’t replace traditional research notes. Moreover, social media is here to stay in the lives of analysts; it’s useful and it’s relevant.
Forrester’s Jeremiah Owyang described 7 tenets of the connected analyst in his blog today; it’s a well-encapsulated set of thoughts on how analysts should engage with the community. To me, that emphasis on connection is a shift in the nature of analysts. Although we write research notes, our research clients probably derive the greatest value from the relationship, the one-on-one interactions that consider an individual client’s situation and provide tailored advice. Blogging, on the other hand, is a one-to-many, perhaps many-to-many, activity.
I’ll have something on the order of 800 one-on-one client interactions this year. Many of these clients will have read a research note before talking to me. But they want to talk about it — to privately ask detailed questions, to get help with their specific situation, to understand the data supporting the conclusions, and in short, to get the equivalent of boutique personalization.
Despite my belief in the value of the relatoinship, though, analyst firms, including mine, still make a lot of money off research subscriptions. And that gives me a professional responsibility to think hard about what to put in a freely-accessible blog versus what to put in a research note that people pay a lot of money for. So in the end, I think that what I’ll be blogging are the things that don’t yet make for good research notes — quick news takes, musings, interesting little tidbits, things that aren’t of ongoing interest to clients, and interaction with the broader blogosphere.
I’m curious to hear the thoughts of others on this subject, whether they’re other Gartner analysts, analysts at competing firms, our clients, or our detractors.
Blog tag
My colleague Thomas Otter tagged me with a name a blog I like meme today.
My two most frequently-read and (during the period when Gartner policy didn’t forbid it, and shortly, now that the policy has changed back to openness) most-commented-upon blogs are actually peripheral to my coverage area, and date back to my long-time research interests (all the way back to college).
The first is the blog of Raph Koster, one of the old hands of virtual worlds, and the author of a book called The Theory of Fun, and has a great deal to say about the future of online games and social worlds.
The second is Terra Nova, a collaborative academically-oriented blog on online gaming and virtual worlds. It contains a lot of thoughtful, sometimes quantitative, past, present, and future of these worlds.
My favorite blog is one that is no longer updated: Creating Passionate Users. It’s about creating better user experiences, whether through technology or other means. It’s all worth reading.
Other than that, I like marketing guru Seth Godin. He’s usually got a bunch of interesting ideas on consumers, businesses, and the art of marketing and selling.
I’m also fond of Joel on Software, whose musings on software development, gadgetry, and technology are always interesting to read and periodically thought-provoking.
Finally, an emergency room physician going by the handle of figent figary writes compellingly about her ER experiences. Unlike the other authors on this blogroll, she hasn’t written a book — but she should.
I’m tagging Eric Goodness, Nick Jones, and Allen Weiner for their list of blogs they like.