Blog Archives

Getting there from here

Let me start by saying that I have drunk the cloud Kool-Aid. I am a believer in its transformative power, and in the business models that it is enabling. I believe that the IT world will look very different in 10 years, and the 5-year differences will be noticeable. I believe in the success stories of the fresh young cloud-native companies.

But I also believe that you’ve got to get there from here. While I have the privilege of working with many smaller technology companies, including cloud-based start-ups, the vast majority of Gartner’s clients are mid-sized businesses and enterprises. Those clients have a vast array of existing IT investments, in both infrastructure and applications, as well as people, process, policies, and the like. Most of our clients are excited by the possibilities that the cloud is offering, and they’re interested in adopting all of it — SaaS, PaaS, IaaS. But they’ve got to figure out how to do it, how to make a sensible, risk-controlled move from what they’ve got today, including, importantly, the mindset and culture of what they have today, to the cloud future.

Our clients are looking for solutions to business needs. Many of them are also explicitly looking for an opportunity to use cloud for the sake of using cloud — to get their feet wet, to learn things, to satisfy the demands of a CEO or CFO, and so forth. As an analyst, my goal is to help my clients find solutions that they’ll be successful with. That’s not just purely about technology; I need to help clients find solutions that also work for their culture, their appetite for risk, their ability to manage change, the way they budget, the way they approach operations and applications and governance, the way they source solutions and manage vendors, their available personnel and their ability to learn new things, their timeframes and business needs, and so forth.

IT buyers are slowly transforming the way they think about cloud, as hype begins to give way to reality. We see people doing very sensible, pragmatic things with cloud IaaS, these days. For most organizations, it will be a five to ten year gradual transformation. The successful blending of old and new models, and the transitional models, are both critical parts to that transformation.

I think my feeling on these things is: Get excited, but don’t get excitable. Most of my research is pitched to people making decisions right now, which is typically about IT buyer immediate needs, and vendor one-year and two-year plans. With cloud, I often look at three-year and five-year scenarios, and we’re doing some ten-year scenarios as well, but that also involves having to think about the sequence and timeline for how things occur in the market.

Fast-evolving markets create and destroy new approaches, and there will always be transitional approaches, artifacts of “what tech is available at this stage” and “what customer mindset exists at this point”. The desires of customers at any given point should not necessarily be taken as the future direction of the market and what will lead to vendor success (or even customer success, ironically). Frankly, some of the things customers will ask for during the transition will be flat-out wacky and wrong. But it won’t change the fact that they want them.

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What’s cloud IaaS really about?

As expected, the Magic Quadrant for Cloud IaaS and Web Hosting is stirring up much of the same debate that was raised with the publication of the 2009 MQ.

Derrick Harris over at GigaOM thinks we got it wrong. He writes: Cloud IaaS is about letting users get what they need, when they need it and, ideally, with a credit card. It doesn’t require requisitioning servers from the IT department, signing a contract for any predefined time period or paying for services beyond the computing resources.

Fundamentally, I dispute Derrick’s assertion of what cloud IaaS is about. I think the things he cites above are cool, and represent a critical shake-up in thinking about IT access, but it’s not ultimately what the whole cloud IaaS market is about. And our research note is targeted at Gartner’s clients — generally IT management and architects at mid-sized businesses and enterprises, along with technology start-ups of all sizes (but generally ones that are large enough to have either funding or revenue).

Infrastructure without a contract? Convenient initially, but as the relationship gets more significant, usually not preferable. In fact, most businesses like to be able to negotiate contract terms. (For that matter, Amazon does customzed Enterprise Agreements with its larger customers.) Businesses love not having to commit to capacity, but the whole market is shifting its business models pretty quickly to adapt to that desire.

Infrastructure without involving traditional IT operations? Great, but someone’s still got to manage the infrastructure — shoving it in the cloud does not remove the need for operations, maintenance, patch management, security, governance, budgeting, etc. Gartner’s clients generally don’t want random application developers plunking down a credit card and just buying stuff willy-nilly. Empower developers with self-provisioning, sure — but provisioning raw infrastructure is the easy and cheap part, in the grand scheme of things.

Paying for services beyond the computing resources? Sure, some people love to self-manage their infrastructure. But really, what most people want to do is to only worry about their application. Their real dream is that cloud IaaS provides not just compute capacity, but secure compute capacity — which generally requires handling routine chores like patch management, and dealing with anti-virus and security event monitoring and such. In other words, they want to eliminate their junior sysadmins. They’re not looking for managed hosting per se; they’re looking to get magic, hassle-free compute resources.

I obviously recognize Amazon’s contributions to the market. The MQ entry on Amazon begins with: Amazon is a thought leader; it is extraordinarily innovative, exceptionally agile and very responsive to the market. It has the richest cloud IaaS product portfolio, and is constantly expanding its service offerings and reducing its prices. But I think Amazon represents an aspect of a broad market.

Cloud IaaS is complicated by the diversity of use cases for it. Our clients are also looking for specific guidance on just the “pure cloud”, self-provisioned “virtual data center” services, so we’re doing two more upcoming vendor ratings to address that need — a Critical Capabilities note that is focused solely on feature sets, and a mid-year Magic Quadrant that will be purely focused on this.

I could talk at length about what our clients are really looking for and what they’re thinking with respect to cloud IaaS, which is a pretty complicated and interesting tangle, but I figure I really ought to write a research note for that… and get back to my holiday vacation for now.

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Qualifying for the next Cloud IaaS Magic Quadrant

Now that the Magic Quadrant for Cloud Infrastructure as a Service and Web Hosting, 2010 has been published, we’re going to be getting started on the mid-year update almost immediately (in February). The mid-year version will be cloud-only, specifically the self-provisioned “virtual data center” segment of the market.

Since I have been deluged with questions about what it takes to be included (and there’s been some interesting fud on Quora), I thought I’d explain in public.

For many years now, Ted Chamberlin and I have done this Magic Quadrant using criteria that are very black-and-white; anyone should be able to look at them like a checklist. Those criteria are pretty simple:

  • You are required to have certain services, which we try to define as clearly as possible.
  • There’s a minimum revenue requirement.
  • There’s a requirement to demonstrate global presence, either through data centers in particular geographies, or a certain amount of revenue derived from outside your home region.

If you meet those criteria, you’re in. If you don’t meet those criteria, no amount of begging will get you in. It has nothing to do with whether or not you are a client. It doesn’t even have anything to do with whether or not our clients ask about you, or whether we think you’re worthy; in inquiry, we routinely recommend some providers who don’t qualify for the MQ but who compete successfully against included vendors.

Because we routinely recommend vendors who aren’t on the MQ, and we’re obviously interested in the market as a whole, we welcome briefings from all vendors who believe that they serve Gartner’s end-user client base (mid-sized businesses to large enterprises, technology companies and tech-heavy businesses of all sizes), regardless of whether they qualify for inclusion. We also track the lower end of the market, though, so we do look at the vendors who serve small businesses; vendors in this segment are similarly welcome to brief us, though in that space we’re generally primarily interested in market-share leaders and anyone doing something that’s clearly differentiated.

Analysts at Gartner choose what briefings they want to take, regardless of whether or not a vendor is a client (our system for briefing requests doesn’t even tell analysts the vendor’s client status). You are welcome to brief us as frequently as you have something interesting to say.

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Gartner is hiring!

Gartner is hiring cloud experts! We’re going to be hiring two analysts who are based in Europe. They’ll cover cloud computing and networking — specifically, they’ll be European counterparts to myself and Ted Chamberlin. That means we’re looking for people who know cloud IaaS, hosting and colocation, and, if possible, have some background in networking as well.

These are Research Director roles, so we’re looking for people who are pretty senior — currently a director or VP, probably, or equivalent, and therefore likely 10+ years of experience (though people with really intensive start-up experience might work out, too, with less).

If you’re interested, drop me a message on LinkedIn.

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Observations from the Gartner data center conference

I’m at Gartner’s Data Center Conference this week, and I’m finding it to be an interesting contrast to our recent Application Architecture, Development, and Integration Summit.

AADI’s primary attendees are enterprise architects and other people who hold leadership roles in applications development. The data center conference’s primary attendees are IT operations directors and others with leadership roles in the data center. Both have significant CIO attendance, especially the data center conference. Attendees at the data center conference, especially, skew heavily towards larger enterprises and those who otherwise have big data centers, so when you see polling results from the conference, keep the bias of the attendees in mind. (Those of you who read my blog regularly: I cite survey data — formal field research, demographically weighted, etc. — differently than conference polling data, as the latter is non-scientific.)

At AADI, the embrace of the public cloud was enthusiastic, and if you asked people what they were doing, they would happily tell you about their experiments with Amazon and whatnot. At this conference, the embrace of the public cloud is far more tentative. In fact, my conversations not-infrequently go like this:

Me: Are you doing any public cloud infrastructure now?
Them: No, we’re just thinking we should do a private cloud ourselves.
Me: Nobody in your company is doing anything on Amazon or a similar vendor?
Them: Oh, yeah, we have a thing there, but that’s not really our direction.

That is not “No, we’re not doing anything on the public cloud”. That’s, “Yes, we’re using the public cloud but we’re in denial about it”.

Lots of unease here about Amazon, which is not particularly surprising. That was true at AADI as well, but people were much more measured there — they had specific concerns, and ways they were addressing, or living with, those concerns. Here the concerns are more strident, particularly around security and SLAs.

Feedback from folks using the various VMware-based public cloud providers seems to be consistently positive — people seem to uniformly be happy with the services themselves and are getting the benefits they hoped to get, and are comfortable. Terremark seems to be the most common vendor for this, by a significant margin. Some Savvis, too. And Verizon customers seem to have talked to Verizon about CaaS, at least. (This reflects my normal inquiry trends, as well.)

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What does the cloud mean to you?

My Magic Quadrant for Cloud Infrastructure as a Service and Web Hosting is done. The last week has been spent in discussion with service providers over their positioning and the positioning of their competitors and the whys and wherefores and whatnots. That has proven to be remarkably interesting this year, because it’s been full of angry indignation by providers claiming diametrically opposed things about the market.

Gartner gathers its data about what people want in two ways — from primary research surveys, and, often more importantly, from client inquiry, the IT organizations who are actually planning to buy things or better yet are actually buying things. I currently see a very large number of data points — a dozen or more conversations of this sort a day, much of it focused on buying cloud IaaS.

And so when a provider tells me, “Nobody in the market wants to buy X!”, I generally have a good base from which to judge whether or not that’s true, particularly since I’ve got an entire team of colleagues here looking at cloud stuff. It’s never that those customers don’t exist; it’s that the provider’s positioning has essentially guaranteed that they don’t see the deals outside their tunnel vision service.

The top common fallacy, overwhelmingly, is that enterprises don’t want to buy from Amazon. I’ve blogged previously about how wrong this is, but at some point in the future, I’m going to have to devote a post (or even a research note) to why this is one of the single greatest, and most dangerous, delusions, that a cloud provider can have. If you offer cloud IaaS, or heck, you’re a data-center-related business, and you think you don’t compete with Amazon, you are almost certainly wrong. Yes, even if your customers are purely enterprise — especially if your customers are large enterprises.

The fact of the matter is that the people out there are looking at different slices of cloud IaaS, but they are still slices of the same market. This requires enough examination that I’m actually going to write a research note instead of just blogging about it, but in summary, my thinking goes like this (crudely segmented, saving the refined thinking for a research note):

There are customers who want self-managed IaaS. They are confident and comfortable managing their infrastructure on their own. They want someone to provide them with the closest thing they can get to bare metal, good tools to control things (or an API they can use to write their own tools), and then they’ll make decisions about what they’re comfortable trusting to this environment.

There are customers who want lightly-managed IaaS, which I often think of as “give me raw infrastructure, but don’t let me get hacked” — which is to say, OS management (specifically patch management) and managed security. They’re happy managing their own applications, but would like someone to do all the duties they typically entrust to their junior sysadmins.

There are customers who want complex management, who really want soup-to-nuts operations, possibly also including application management.

And then in each of these segments, you can divide customers into those with a single application (which may have multiple components and be highly complex, potentially), and those who have a whole range of stuff that encompass more general data center needs. That drives different customer behaviors and different service requirements.

Claiming that there’s no “real” enterprise market for self-managed is just as delusional as claiming there’s no market for complex management. They’re different use cases in the same market, and customers often start out confused about where they fall along this spectrum, and many customers will eventually need solutions all along this spectrum.

Now, there’s absolutely an argument to be made that the self-managed and lightly-managed segments together represent an especially important segment of the market, where a high degree of innovation is taking place. It means that I’m writing some targeted research — selection notes, a Critical Capabilities rating of individual services, probably a Magic Quadrant that focuses specifically on this next year. But the whole spectrum is part of the cloud IaaS adoption phenomenon, and any individual segment isn’t representative of the total market evolution.

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Inquiries, Cloud/Hosting MQ, and availability in LA/SF

Prospects or Gartner clients who want to meet with me: I will be in Los Angeles on November 18th, and in the San Francisco Bay Area on November 22nd and 23rd. If you want to meet while I’m there, contact your account executive. I’ll also be at Gartner’s Application Architecture, Development, and Integration Summit in Los Angeles from November 15th-17th, and Gartner’s Data Center Conference in Las Vegas from December 6th-9th. (I’m giving a number of presentations and roundtables.)

I recently got some statistics on my inquiry volume, and I was shocked — inquiry is up for me by 93% year-over-year. I thought I had physically run out of hours in the day, but I realized that I’ve also cut back on some my travel and gotten more aggressive about back-to-back timeslots (letting 14 calls be crammed into a day, if necessary). I already had one of the highest workloads in the company last year, so it probably explains why I am feeling somewhat… frazzled. This is mostly cloud-related inquiry, although CDN inquiry still occupies some significant percentage of my time.

The Cloud Infrastructure as a Service and Web Hosting Magic Quadrant is finally finished. Assuming that our peer review goes well, it should be out to vendors for review next week, and published in December.

Last year’s Magic Quadrant was more hosting than cloud. This year, it’s reversed — it’s definitely more cloud than hosting. There’s lots of movement, and there are five new vendors. I’m sure that it will probably be controversial again. The next step is to do our Critical Capabilities note, which is a direct comparison of just the cloud services in their immediate state, separate from questions about things like customer service, managed and professional services, future roadmap, and so forth — just raw “how do these guys stack up in what they offer”.

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Symposium, Smart Control, and cloud computing

I originally wrote this right after Orlando Symposium and forgot to post it.

Now that Symposium is over, I want to reflect back on the experiences of the week. Other than the debate session that I did (Eric Knipp and I arguing the future of PaaS vs. IaaS), I spent the conference in the one-on-one room or meeting with customers over meals. And those conversations resonated in sharp and sometimes uncomfortable ways with the messages of this year’s Symposiums.

The analyst keynote said this:

An old rule for an old era: absolute centralized IT control over technology people, infrastructure, and services. Rather than fight to regain control, CIOs and IT Leaders must transform themselves from controllers to influencers; from implementers to advisers; from employees to partners. You own this metamorphosis. As an IT leader, you must apply a new rule, for a new era: Smart Control. Open the IT environment to a Wild Open World of unprecedented choice, and better balance cost, risk, innovation and value. Users can achieve incredible things WITHOUT you, but they can only maximize their IT capabilities WITH you. Smart Control is about managing technology in tighter alignment with business goals, by loosening your grip on IT.

The tension of this loss of control, was by far the overwhelming theme of my conversations with clients at Symposium. Since I cover cloud computing, my topic was right at the heart of the new worries. Data from a survey we did earlier this year showed that less than 50% of cloud computing projects are initiated by IT leadership.

Most of the people that I talked to strongly held one of two utterly opposing beliefs: that cloud computing was going to be the Thing of the Future and the way they and their companies would consume IT in the future, and that cloud computing would be something that companies could never embrace. My mental shorthand for the extremes of these positions is “enthusiastic embrace” and “fear and loathing”.

I met IT leaders, especially in mid-sized business, who were tremendously excited by the possibilities of the cloud to free their businesses to move and innovate in ways that they never had before, and to free IT from the chores of keeping the lights on in order to help deliver more busines value. They understood that the technology in cloud is still fairly immature, but they wanted to figure out how they could derive benefits right now, taking smart risks to develop some learnings, and to deliver immediate business value.

And I also met IT leaders who fear the new world and everything it represents — a loss of control, a loss of predictability, an emphasis on outcomes rather than outputs, the need to take risks to obtain rewards. These people were looking for reasons not to change — reasons that they could take back to the business for why they should continue to do the things they always have, perhaps with some implementation of a “private cloud”, in-house.

The analyst keynote pointed out: The new type of CIO won’t ask first what the implementation cost is, or whether something complies with the architecture, but whether it’s good for the enterprise. They will train their teams to think like a business executive, asking first, “is this valuable”? And only then asking, “how can we make this work”? Rather than the other way around.

Changing technologies is often only moderately difficult. Changing mindsets, though, is an enormous challenge.

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More on Symposium 1-on-1s

My calendar for one-on-ones at Symposium is now totally full, as far as I know, so here’s a look at some updated stats:

Cloud 23
Colocation 9
Hosting 9
CDN 3

(No overlaps above. Things have been disambiguated. This counts only the formal 1-on-1s, and not any other meetings I’m doing here.)

The hosting discussions have a very strong cloud flavor to them, as one might expect. The broad trend from today is that most people talking about cloud infrastructure here are really talking about putting individual production applications on virtualized infrastructure in a managed hosting environment, with at least some degree of capacity flexibility. But at the same time, this is a good thing for service provider — it clearly illustrates that people are comfortable putting highly mission-critical, production applications on shared infrastructure.

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Symposium 1-on-1 trends

My 1-on-1 schedule is filling rapidly. (People who didn’t pre-book, you’re in luck: I was only added to the system on Friday or so, so I still have openings, at least as of this writing.)

Trend-watchers might be interested in how these break down so far:
17 on cloud
8 on colocation
4 on hosting
2 on CDN

(A few of these mention two topics, such as ‘colo and cloud’, and are counted twice above.)

Slightly over half the cloud 1-on-1s so far are about cloud strategy in general; the remainder are about infrastructure specifically.

What’s also interesting to me is that the 1-on-1s scheduled prior to on-site registration appear to be more about colocation and hosting, but the on-site 1-on-1 requests are very nearly pure cloud. I’m not sure what that signifies, although I expect the conversations may be illuminating in this regard.

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