Blog Archives

Magic Quadrant (hosting and cloud), published!

The new Magic Quadrant for Web Hosting and Hosted Cloud System Infrastructure Services (On Demand) has been published. (Gartner clients only, although I imagine public copies will become available soon as vendors buy reprints.) Inclusion criteria was set primarily by revenue; if you’re wondering why your favorite vendor wasn’t included, it was probably because they didn’t, at the January cut-off date, have a cloud compute service, or didn’t have enough revenue to meet the bar. Also, take note that this is direct services only (thus the somewhat convoluted construction of the title); it does not include vendors with enabling technology like Enomaly, or overlaid services like RightScale.

It marks the first time we’ve done a formal vendor rating of many of the cloud system infrastructure service providers. We do so in the context of the Web hosting market, though, which means that the providers are evaluated on the full breadth of the five most common hosting use cases that Gartner clients have. Self-managed hosting (including “virtual data center” hosting of the Amazon EC2, GoGrid, Terremark Enterprise Cloud, etc. sort) is just one of those use cases. (The primary cloud infrastructure use case not in this evaluation is batch-oriented processing, like scientific computing.)

We mingled Web hosting and cloud infrastructure on the same vendor rating because one of the primary use cases for cloud infrastructure is for the hosting of Web applications and content. For more details on this, see my blog post about how customers buy solutions to business needs, not technology. (You might also want to read my blog post on “enterprise class” cloud.)

We rated more than 60 individual factors for each vendor, spanning five use cases. The evaluation criteria note (Gartner clients only) gives an overview of the factors that we evaluate in the course of the MQ. The quantitative scores from the factors were rolled up into category scores, which in turn rolled up into overall vision and execution scores, which turn into the dot placement in the Quadrant. All the number crunching is done by software — analysts don’t get to arbitrarily move dots around.

To understand the Magic Quadrant methodology, I’d suggest you read the following:

Some people might look at the vendors on this MQ and wonder why exciting new entrants aren’t highly rated on vision and/or execution. Simply put, many of these vendors might be superb at what they do, yet still not rate very highly in the overall market represented by the MQ, because they are good at just one of the five use cases encompassed by the MQ’s market definition, or even good at just one particular aspect of a single use case. This is not just a cloud-related rating; to excel in the market as a whole, one has to be able to offer a complete range of solutions.

Because there’s considerable interest in vendor selection for various use cases (including non-hosting use cases) that are unique to public cloud compute services, we’re also planning to publish some companion research, using a recently-introduced Gartner methodology called a Critical Capabilities note. These notes look at vendors in the context of a single product/service, broken down by use case. (Magic Quadrants, on the other hand, look at overall vendor positioning within an entire market.) The Critical Capabilities note solves one of the eternal dilemmas of looking at a MQ, which is trying to figure out which vendors are highly rated for the particular business need that you have, since, as I want to re-iterate again, a MQ niche player may be do the exact thing you need in a vastly more awesome fashion than a vendor rated a leader. Critical Capabilities notes break things down feature-by-feature.

In the meantime, for more on choosing a cloud infrastructure provider, Gartner clients should also look at some of my other notes:

For cloud infrastructure service providers: We may expand the number of vendors we evaluate for the Critical Capabilities note. If you’ve never briefed us before, we’d welcome you to do so now; schedule a briefing with myself, Ted Chamberlin, and Mike Spink (a brand-new colleague in Europe).

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How not to use a Magic Quadrant

The Web hosting Magic Quadrant is currently in editing, the culmination of a six-month process (despite my strenuous efforts to keep it to four months). Many, many client conversations, reference calls, and vendor discussions later, we arrive at the demonstration of a constant challenge: the user tendency to misinterpret the Magic Quadrant, and the correlating vendor tendency to become obsessive about which quadrant they’re placed in.

Even though Gartner has an extensive explanation of the Magic Quadrant methodology on our website, vendors and users alike tend to oversimplify what it means. So a complex methodology ends up translating down to something like this:

But the MQ isn’t intended to be used this way. Just because a vendor isn’t listed as a Leader doesn’t mean that they suck. It doesn’t mean that they don’t have enterprise clients, that those clients don’t like them, that their product sucks, that they don’t routinely beat out Leaders for business, or, most importantly, that we wouldn’t recommend them or that you shouldn’t use them.

The MQ reflects the overall position of a vendor within an entire market. An MQ leader tends to do well at a broad selection of products/services within that market, but is not necessarily the best at any particular product/service within that market. And even the vendor who is typically best at something might not be the right vendor for you, especially if your profile or use case deviates significantly from the “typical”.

I recognize, of course, that one of the reasons that people look at visual tools like the MQ is that they want to rapidly cull down the number of vendors in the market, in order to make a short-list. I’m not naive about the fact that users will say things like, “We will only use Leaders” or “We won’t use a Niche Player”. However, this is explicitly what the MQ is not designed to do. It’s incredibly important to match your needs to what a vendor is good at, and you have to read the text of the MQ in order to understand that. Also, there may be vendors who are too small or too need-specific to have qualified to be on the MQ, who shouldn’t be overlooked.

Also, an MQ reflects only a tiny percentage of what an analyst actually knows about the vendor. Its beauty is that it reduces a ton of quantified specific ratings (nearly 5 dozen, in the case of my upcoming MQ) to a point on a graph, and a pile of qualitative data to somewhere between six and ten one-or-two-sentence bullet points about a vendor. It’s convenient reference material that’s produced by an exhaustive (and exhausting) process, but it’s not necessarily the best medium for expressing an analyst’s nuanced opinions about a vendor.

I say this in advance of the Web hosting MQ’s release: In general, the greater the breadth of your needs, or the more mainstream they are, the more likely it is that an MQ’s ratings are going to reflect your evaluation of the vendors. Vendors who specialize in just a single use case, like most of the emerging cloud vendors, have market placements that reflect that specialization, although they may serve that specific use case better than vendors who have broader product portfolios.

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What makes for an effective MQ briefing?

My colleague Ted Chamberlin and I are currently finalizing the new Gartner Magic Quadrant for Web Hosting. This year, we’ve nearly doubled the number of providers on the MQ, adding a bunch of cloud providers who offer hosting services (i.e., providers who are cloud system infrastructure service providers, and who aren’t pure storage or backup).

The draft has gone out for vendor review, and these last few days have been occupied by more than a dozen conversations with vendors about where they’ve placed in the MQ. (No matter what, most vendors are convinced they should be further right and further up.) Over the course of these conversations, one clear pattern seems to be characterizing this year: We’re seeing lots of data presented in the feedback process that wasn’t presented as part of the MQ briefing or any previous briefing the vendor did with us.

I recognize the MQ can be a mysterious process to vendors. So here’s a couple of thoughts from the analyst side on what makes for effective MQ briefing content. These are by no means universal opinions, but may be shared by my colleagues who cover service businesses.

In brief, the execution axis is about what you’re doing now. The vision axis is about where you’re going. A set of definitions for the criteria on each axis are included with every vendor notification that begins the Magic Quadrant process. If you’re a vendor being considered for an MQ, you really want to read the criteria. We do not throw darts to determine vendor placement. Every vendor gets a numerical rating on every single one of those criteria, and a tool plots the dots. It’s a good idea to address each of those criteria in your briefing (or supplemental material, if you can’t fit in everything you need into the briefing).

We generally have reasonably good visibility into execution from our client base, but the less market presence you have, especially among Gartner’s typical client base (mid-size business to large enterprise, and tech companies), the less we’ve probably seen you in deals or have gotten feedback from your customers. Similarly, if you don’t have much in the way of a channel, there’s less of a chance any of your partners have talked to us about what they’re doing with you. Thus, your best use of briefing time for an MQ is to fill us in on what we don’t know about your company’s achievements — the things that aren’t readily culled from publicly-available information or talking to prospects, customers, and partners.

It’s useful to briefly summarize your company’s achievements over the last year — revenue growth, metrics showing improvements in various parts of the business, new product introductions, interesting customer wins, and so forth. Focus on the key trends of your business. Tell us what strategic initiatives you’ve undertaken and the ways they’ve contributed to your business. You can use this to help give us context to the things we’ve observed about you. We may, for instance, have observed that your customer service seems to have improved, but not know what specific measures you took to improve it. Telling us also helps us to judge how far along the curve you are with an initiative, which in turn helps us to advise our clients better and more accurately rate you.

Vision, on the other hand, is something that only you can really tell us about. Because this is where you’re going, rather than where you are now or where you’ve been, the amount of information you’re willing to disclose is likely to directly correlate to our judgement of your vision. A one-year, quarter-by-quarter roadmap is usually the best way to show us what you’re thinking; a two-year roadmap is even better. (Note that we do rate track record, so you don’t want to claim things that you aren’t going to deliver — you’ll essentially take a penalty next year if you failed to deliver on the roadmap.) We want to know what you think of the market and your place in it, but the very best way to demonstrate that you’re planning to do something exciting and different is to tell us what you’re expecting to do. (We can keep the specifics under NDA, although the more we can talk about publicly, the more we can tell our clients that if they choose you, there’ll be some really cool stuff you’ll be doing for them soon.) If you don’t disclose your initiatives, we’re forced to guess based on your general statements of direction, and generally we’re going to be conservative in our guesses, which probably means a lower rating than you might otherwise have been able to get.

The key thing to remember, though, is that if at all possible, an MQ briefing should be a summary and refresher, not an attempt to cram a year’s worth of information into an hour. If you’ve been doing routine briefings covering product updates and the launch of key initiatives, you can skip all that in an MQ briefing, and focus on presenting the metrics and key achievements that show what you’ve done, and the roadmap that shows where you’re going. Note that you don’t have to be a client in order to conduct briefings. If MQ placement or analyst recommendations are important to your business, keep in mind that when you keep an analyst well-informed, you reap the benefit the whole year ’round in the hundreds or even thousands of conversations analysts have with your prospective customers, not just on the MQ itself.

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Wading into the waters of cloud adoption

I’ve been pondering the dot write-ups that I need to do for Gartner’s upcoming Cloud Computing hype cycle, as well as my forthcoming Magic Quadrant on Web Hosting (which now includes a bunch of cloud-based providers), and contemplating this thought:

We are at the start of an adoption curve for cloud computing. Getting from here, to the realization of the grand vision, will be, for most organizations, a series of steps into the water, and not a grand leap.

Start-ups have it easy; by starting with a greenfield build, they can choose from the very beginning to embrace new technologies and methodologies. Established organizations can sometimes do this with new projects, but still have heavy constraints imposed by the legacy environment. And new projects, especially now, are massively dwarfed by the existing installed base of business IT infrastructure: existing policies (and regulations), processes, methodologies, employees, and, of course, systems and applications.

The weight of all that history creates, in many organizations, a “can’t do” attitude. Sometimes that attitude comes right from the top of the business or from the CIO, but I’ve also encountered many a CIO eager to embrace innovation, only to be stymied by the morass of his organization’s IT legacy. Part of the fascination of the cloud services, of course, is that it allows business leaders to “go rogue” — to bypass the IT organization entirely in order to get what they want done ASAP, without much in the way of constraints and oversight. The counter-force is the move to develop private clouds that provide greater agility to internal IT.

Two client questions have been particularly prominent in the inquiries I’ve been taking on cloud (a super-hot topic of inquiry, as you’d expect): Is this cloud stuff real? and What can I do with the cloud right now? Companies are sticking their toes into the water, but few are jumping off the high dive. What interests me, though, is that many are engaging in active vendor discussions about taking the plunge, even if their actual expectation (or intent) is to just wade out a little. Everyone is afraid of sharks; it’s viewed as a high-risk activity.

In my research work, I have been, like the other analysts who do core cloud work here at Gartner, looking at a lot of big-picture stuff. But I’ve been focusing my written research very heavily on the practicalities of immediate-term adoption — answering the huge client demand for frameworks to use in formulating and executing on near-term cloud infrastructure plans, and in long-term strategic planning for their data centers. The interest is undoubtedly there. There’s just a gap between the solutions that people want to adopt, and the solutions that actually exist in the market. The market is evolving with tremendous rapidity, though, so not being able to find the solution you want today doesn’t mean that you won’t be able to get it next year.

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The cloud computing forecast

John Treadway of Cloud Bzz asked my colleague Ben Pring, at our Outsourcing Summit, about how we derived our cloud forecast. Ben’s answer is apparently causing a bit of concern. I figured it might be useful for me to respond publicly, since I’m one of the authors of the forecast.

The full forecast document (clients only, sorry) contains a lot of different segments, which in turn make up the full market that we’ve termed “cloud computing”. We’ve forecasted each segment, along with subsegments within them. Those segments, and their subsegments, are Business Process Services (cloud-based advertising, e-commerce, HR, payments, and other); Applications (no subcategories; this is “cloud SaaS”); Application Infrastructure (platform and integration); and System Infrastructure (compute, storage, and backup).

Obviously, one argue whether or not it’s valid to include advertising revenue, but a key point that should not be missed is that in the trend towards the consumerization of IT, it is the advertiser that often implicitly pays for the consumer’s use of an IT service, rather than the consuer himself. Advertising revenue is a significant component of the overall market, part of the “cloud” phenomenon even if you don’t necessarily think of it as “computing”.

Because we offer highly granular breakouts within the forecast, those who are looking for specific details or who wish to classify the market in a particular way should be able to do so. If you want to define cloud computing as just typical notions of PaaS plus IaaS, for instance, you can probably simply take our platform, compute, and storage line-items and add them together.

Is it confusing to see the giant number with advertising included? It can be. I often start off descriptions of our forecast with, “This is a huge number, but you should note that a substantial percentage of these revenues are derived from online advertising.” and then drill down into a forecast for a particular segment or subsegment of audience interest.

Giant numbers can be splashily exciting on conference presentations, but pretty much anyone doing anything practical with the forecast (like trying to figure out their market opportunity) looks at a segment or even a subsegment.

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Recent research

I’m at Gartner’s business continuity management summit (BCM2) this week, and my second talk, upcoming later this morning, is on the relevance of colocation and cloud computing (i.e., do-it-yourself external solutions) to disaster recovery.

My recent written research has been all focused on cloud, although plenty of my day to day client time has been dealing with more traditional services — colocation, data center leasing, managed hosting, CDN services. Yet, cloud remains a persistent hot topic, particularly since it’s now difficult to have a discussion about most of the other areas I cover without also getting into utility/cloud and future data center strategy.

Here’s what I’ve published recently:

How to Select a Cloud Computing Infrastructure Provider. This is a lengthy document that takes you methodically through the selection process of a provider for cloud infrastructure services, and provides an education in the sorts of options that are currently available. There’s an accompanying Toolkit: Comparing Cloud Computing Infrastructure Providers, which is a convenient spreadsheet for collecting all of this data for multiple providers, and scoring each of them according to your needs.

Cool Vendors in Cloud Computing System and Application Infrastructure, 2009. Our Cool Vendors notes highlight small companies that we think are doing something notable. These aren’t vendor recommendations, just a look at things that are interesting in the marketplace. This year’s selections were AppZero, Engine Yard, Enomaly, LongJump, ServePath (GoGrid), Vaultscape, and Voxel. (Note for the cynical: Cool Vendor status can’t be bought, in any way shape or form; client status is not at a consideration at any point, and these kinds of small vendors often don’t have the money to spend on research anyway.)

Key Issues for Managed and Professional Network Services, 2009. I’m not the primary author for this, but I contributed to the section on cloud-based services. This note is targeted at carriers and other network service providers, providing a broad overview of things they need to be thinking about in the next year.

I’m keeping egregiously busy. I recently did my yearly corporate work plan, showing my productivity metrics. I’ve already done a full year of work, based on our average productivity metrics, and it’s April. That’s the kind of year it’s been. It’s an exciting time in the market, though.

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Research du jour

My newest research notes are all collaborative efforts.

Forecast: Sizing the Cloud; Understanding the Opportunities in Cloud Services. This is Gartner’s official take on cloud segmentation and forecasting through 2013. It was a large-team effort; my contribution was primarily on the compute services portion.

Invest Insight: Content Delivery Network Arbitrage Increases Market Competition. This is a note specifically for Gartner Invest clients, written in conjunction with my colleague Frank Marsala (a former sell-side analyst who heads up our telecom sector for investors). It’s primarily about Conviva but also touches on Cotendo, but its key point is not to look at particular companies, but to look at technology-enabled long-term trends.

Cool Vendors in Cloud Computing Management and Professional Services, 2009. This is part of our annual “cool vendors” series highlighting small vendors whom we think are doing something notable. It’s a group effort, and we pick the vendors via committee. (And no, there is no way to buy your way into the report.) This year’s picks (never a secret, since vendors usually do press releases) are Appirio, CohesiveFT, Hyperic, RightScale, and Ylastic.

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TCO tool for cloud computing

Gartner clients might be interested in my just-published piece of research, which is a TCO toolkit for comparing the cost of internal and cloud infrastructure.

A not-new link, but which I nonetheless want to draw people’s attention to as much as possible: Yahoo’s best practices for speeding up your web site is a superb list of clearly-articulated tips for improving your site performance and the user’s perception of performance (which goes beyond just site performance). Recommended reading for everyone from the serious Web developer to the guy just throwing some HTML up for his personal pages.

On the similarly not-new but still-interesting front, Voxel’s open-source mod_cdn module for Apache is a cool little bit of code that makes it easy to CDN-ify your site — install the module and it’ll automatically transform your links to static content. For those of you who are dealing with CDNs that don’t provide CNAME support (like the Rackspace/Limelight combo), are using Apache for your origin front-end, and who don’t want to fool with mod_rewrite, this might be an interesting alternative.

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Interesting tidbits for the week

A bit of a link round-up…

My colleague Daryl Plummer has posted his rebuttal in our ongoing debate over cloud infrastructure commoditization. I agree with his assertion that over the long term, the bigger growth stories will be the value-added providers and not the pure-play cloud infrastructure guys, but I also stick to my guns in believing that customer service is a differentiator and we’ll have a lot of pure-plays, not a half-dozen monolithic mega-infrastructure-providers.

Michael Topalovich, of Delivered Innovation, has blogged a post-mortem on Coghead. It’s a well-written and detailed dissection of what went wrong, from the perspective of a former Coghead partner. Anyone who runs or uses a platform as a service would be well served to read it, as there are plenty of excellent lessons to be learned.

Richard Jones, of Last.fm, has put up an annotated short-list of distributed key-value stores (mostly in the form of distributed hash tables). He’s looking for a premise-based rather than cloud-based solution, but his commentary is thoughtful and the comments thread is interesting as well.

Also, I have a new research note out (Gartner clients only), in collaboration with my colleague Ted Chamberlin: evaluation criteria for Web hosting (including cloud infrastructure services in that context), which is the decision framework that supports the the Magic Quadrant that we’re anticipating publishing in April. (Also coming soon, a “how to choose a cloud infrastructure provider” note and accompanying toolkit.)

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Seven years to SEAP, not to cloud in general

Gartner recently put out a press release titled “Gartner Says Cloud Application Infrastructure Technologies Need Seven Years to Mature“, based on a report from my colleague Mark Driver. That’s gotten a bunch of pickup in the press and in the blogosphere. I’ve read a lot of people commenting about how the timeline given seems surprisingly conservative, and I suspect it’s part of what has annoyed Reuven Cohen into posting, “Cloud computing is for everyone — except stupid people.

The confusion, I think, is over what the timeline actually covers. Mark is talking specifically about service-enabled application platforms (SEAPs), not cloud computing in general. Basically, a SEAP is a foundation platform for software as a service. Examples of current-generation SEAP platforms are Google App Engine, Microsoft Azure, the Facebook application platform, Coghead, and Bungee Labs. (Gartner clients who want to drill into SEAP, see The Impact of SaaS on Application Servers and Platforms.) When you’re talking about SEAP adoption, you’re talking about something pretty complex, on a very different timeframe than the evolution of the broader cloud computing style.

Cloud computing in general already has substantial business uptake, with potential radical acceleration due to the economic downturn. I say “potential” because it’s very clear to me that existing public cloud services, at their current state of maturity, frequently don’t meet the requirements that enterprises are looking for right now. I have far more clients suddenly willing to consider taking even big risks to leap into the cloud, than I have clients who actually have projects well-suited to the public cloud and who will realize substantial immediate cost savings from that move.

On the flip side, for those who have public-facing Web infrastructure, cloud services are now a no-brainer. Expect cloud elasticity and fast provisioning to simply become part of hosting and data center outsourcing solutions. Traditional hosting providers who don’t make the transition near-immediately are going to get eaten alive.

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