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Cloud IaaS adoption survey
My colleagues and I are planning to field a survey about cloud computing adoption (specifically, infrastructure as a service), both to assess current attitudes towards cloud IaaS as well as ask people about their adoption plans. The target respondents for the survey will be IT buyers.
We have some questions that we know we want to ask (and that we know our clients, both end-users and vendors, are curious about), and some hypotheses that we want to test, but I’ll ask in this open forum, in an effort to try to ensure the survey is maximally useful: What are the cloud-adoption survey questions whose answers would cause you to change your cloud-related decision-making? (You can reply in a comment, send me email, or Twitter @cloudpundit.)
I expect survey data will help vendors alter their tactical priorities and may alter their strategic plans, and it may assist IT buyers in figuring out where they are relative to the “mainstream” plans (useful when talking to cautious business leadership worried about this newfangled cloud thing).
Somewhat peripherally: Following up on earlier confusion, a potshot was taken at the popularity of surveys at large analyst firms. I’ll note that I’m very much a fan of surveys, and if I had infinite budget to work with, I’d probably field a lot more of them. Surveys are (hopefully) not just blind firing of questions into the populace. Intelligent survey design is an art form (as is proper fielding of a survey). Asking the right questions — forming testable hypotheses whose implications are actionable by clients, and getting good information density out of the questions you ask (looking for patterns in the correlations, not just the individual answers) — is incredibly important if you’re going to get something maximally useful out of the money you spent. Data analysis can drive insights that you wouldn’t have otherwise been able to obtain and/or prove.
The Magic Quadrant, Amazon, and confusion
Despite my previous clarifying commentary on the Magic Quadrant for Web Hosting and Cloud Infrastructure Services (On Demand), posted when the MQ was published, and the text of the MQ itself, there continues to be confusion around the positioning of the vendors in the MQ. This is an attempt to clarify, in brief.
This MQ is not a pure cloud computing MQ. It is a hosting MQ. Titling it as such, and making it such, is not some feeble attempt to defend the traditional way of doing things. It is designed to help Gartner’s clients select a Web hoster, and it’s focused upon the things that enterprises care about. Today, our clients consider cloud players as well as traditional players during the selection process. Cloud has been highly disruptive to the hosting industry, introducing a pile of new entrants, revitalizing minor players and lifting them to a new level, and forcing successful traditional players to revise their approach to the business.
The most common question asked by outsiders who just look at the chart and nothing more is, “Why doesn’t Amazon score higher on vision and execution?”
The answer, simply, is that the hosting MQ scores five use cases — self-managed hosting, mainstream (low/mid-end) managed hosting, highly complex managed hosting, global solutions portfolio (ability to provide multiple types of service packages at multiple price points, globally, for very large multi-nationals seeking global hosting options), and enterprise applications hosting. The final rating is a weighted composite of these scores. Amazon scores extremely highly on self-managed hosting, but has a much more limited ability to support the other four scenarios.
Amazon lacks many capabilities that are important in the overall Web hosting market, like managed services, the ability to mix in dedicated equipment (important to anyone who wants to run things that don’t virtualize well, like large-scale Oracle databases, as well as colocate “black box” hardware appliances, like those used for transaction functions for some e-commerce sites), the ability to isolate the environment from the Internet and just use private network connectivity, etc. Their lack of these capabilities hurts their scores. (Note that some capabilities that were missing may have been disclosed to us as part of Amazon’s roadmap, which augmented their Vision score positively, but similarly, stances taken that would definitively shut out some features would be penalized.)
Clearly, we don’t think that Amazon sucks as a cloud provider; it’s just that they don’t play as broadly in the hosting space as the best of the traditional players, although they are certainly a competitor against the traditional players, and a disruptive entrant in general.
The same could be said for many of Amazon’s cloud competitors, although those with some background in traditional hosting may have fewer product-portfolio gaps. Original innovation is a component of Vision but it’s only part of the overall Vision score, so being a fast follower only hurts you so much.
We recognize the need for a “pure cloud compute” vendor rating, and have one in the works.
Cloudy inquiry trends
I haven’t been posting much lately, due to being overwhelmingly busy with client inquiries, and having a few medical issues that have taken me out of the action somewhat. So, this is something of a catch-up, state-of-the-universe-from-my-perspective, inquiry-trends post.
With the economy picking up a bit, and businesses starting to return to growth initiatives rather than just cost optimization, and the approach of the budget season, the flow of client inquiry around cloud strategy has accelerated dramatically, to the point where cloud inquiries are becoming the overwhelming majority of my inquiries. Even my colocation and data center leasing inquiries are frequently taking on a cloud flavor, i.e., “How long more should we plan to have this data center, rather than just putting everything in the cloud?”
Organizations have really absorbed the hype — they genuinely believe that shortly, the cloud will solve all of their infrastructure issues. Sometimes, they’ve even made promises to executive management that this will be the case. Unfortunately, in the short term (i.e., for 2010 and 2011 planning), this isn’t going to be the case for your typical mid-size and enterprise business. There’s just too much legacy burden. Also, traditional software licensing schemes simply don’t work in this brave new world of elastic capacity.
The enthusiasm, though, is vast, which means that there are tremendous opportunities out there, and I think it’s both entirely safe and mainstream to run cloud infrastructure pilot projects right now, including large-scale, mission-critical, production infrastructure pilots for a particular business need (as opposed to deciding to move your whole data center into the cloud, which is still bleeding-edge adopter stuff). Indeed, I think there’s a significant untapped potential for tools that ease this transition. (Certainly there are any number of outsourcers and consultants who would love to charge you vast amounts of money to help you migrate.)
We see the colocation and data center leasing markets shift with the economy, and the trends and the players shift with them, especially as strong new regionals and high-density players emerge. The cloud influence is also significant, as people try to evaluate what their real needs for space will be going forward; this is particularly true for anyone looking at long-term leases, and wondering what the state of IT will be like going out ten years. Followers of this space should check out SwitchNAP for a good example of the kind of impact that a new player can make in a very short time (they opened in December).
August has been a consistently quiet month for CDN contract inquiries, and this year is no exception, but the whole of last three months has really been hopping. The industry is continuing to shift in interesting ways, not just because of the dynamics of the companies involved, but because of changing buyer needs. Also, there was a very interesting new launch in July, in the application delivery network space, a company called Asankya, definitely worth checking out if you follow this space.
All in all, there’s a lot of activity, and it’s becoming more future-focused as people get ready to prep their budgets. This is good news for everyone, I think. Even though the fundamental economic shifts have driven companies to be more value-driven, I think there’s a valuable emphasis being placed on the right solutions at the right price, that do the right thing for the business.
Cloud computing adoption surveys
A recent Forrester survey apparently indicates that that one out of four large companies plan to use an external provider soon, or have already done so. (The Cloud Storage Strategy blog has a good round-up linking to the original report, a summary of the key points, and various commentators.)
Various pundits are apparently surprised by these results. I’m not. I haven’t been able to obtain a copy of the Forrester report, but from the comments I’ve read, it appears that software as a service and hosting (part of infrastructure as a service) are included as part of the surveyed services. SaaS and IaaS are both well-established markets, with significant penetration across all segments of business, and interest in both IaaS and SaaS models has accelerated. We’ve wrapped the “cloud” label around some or all of these existing markets (how much gets encompassed depends on your definitions), so it shouldn’t come as a surprise to already see high adoption rates.
Gartner’s own survey on this topic has just been published. It’s titled, “User Survey Analysis: Economic Pressures Drive Cost-Oriented Outsourcing, Worldwide, 2008-2009“. Among its many components is a breakdown of current and planned use of alternative delivery models (which include things like SaaS and IT infrastructure utilities) over the next 24 months. We show even higher current and planned adoption numbers than Forrester, with IaaS leading the pack in terms of current and near-term adoption, and very healthy numbers for SaaS as well.
Magic Quadrant (hosting and cloud), published!
The new Magic Quadrant for Web Hosting and Hosted Cloud System Infrastructure Services (On Demand) has been published. (Gartner clients only, although I imagine public copies will become available soon as vendors buy reprints.) Inclusion criteria was set primarily by revenue; if you’re wondering why your favorite vendor wasn’t included, it was probably because they didn’t, at the January cut-off date, have a cloud compute service, or didn’t have enough revenue to meet the bar. Also, take note that this is direct services only (thus the somewhat convoluted construction of the title); it does not include vendors with enabling technology like Enomaly, or overlaid services like RightScale.
It marks the first time we’ve done a formal vendor rating of many of the cloud system infrastructure service providers. We do so in the context of the Web hosting market, though, which means that the providers are evaluated on the full breadth of the five most common hosting use cases that Gartner clients have. Self-managed hosting (including “virtual data center” hosting of the Amazon EC2, GoGrid, Terremark Enterprise Cloud, etc. sort) is just one of those use cases. (The primary cloud infrastructure use case not in this evaluation is batch-oriented processing, like scientific computing.)
We mingled Web hosting and cloud infrastructure on the same vendor rating because one of the primary use cases for cloud infrastructure is for the hosting of Web applications and content. For more details on this, see my blog post about how customers buy solutions to business needs, not technology. (You might also want to read my blog post on “enterprise class” cloud.)
We rated more than 60 individual factors for each vendor, spanning five use cases. The evaluation criteria note (Gartner clients only) gives an overview of the factors that we evaluate in the course of the MQ. The quantitative scores from the factors were rolled up into category scores, which in turn rolled up into overall vision and execution scores, which turn into the dot placement in the Quadrant. All the number crunching is done by software — analysts don’t get to arbitrarily move dots around.
To understand the Magic Quadrant methodology, I’d suggest you read the following:
- The official How Gartner Evaluates Vendors within a Market guide to Magic Quadrants
- My colleague Jim Holincheck’s blog post on Misunderstanding Magic Quadrants
- My blog post on How Not To Use a Magic Quadrant
- Analyst industry watcher SageCircle’s commentary
Some people might look at the vendors on this MQ and wonder why exciting new entrants aren’t highly rated on vision and/or execution. Simply put, many of these vendors might be superb at what they do, yet still not rate very highly in the overall market represented by the MQ, because they are good at just one of the five use cases encompassed by the MQ’s market definition, or even good at just one particular aspect of a single use case. This is not just a cloud-related rating; to excel in the market as a whole, one has to be able to offer a complete range of solutions.
Because there’s considerable interest in vendor selection for various use cases (including non-hosting use cases) that are unique to public cloud compute services, we’re also planning to publish some companion research, using a recently-introduced Gartner methodology called a Critical Capabilities note. These notes look at vendors in the context of a single product/service, broken down by use case. (Magic Quadrants, on the other hand, look at overall vendor positioning within an entire market.) The Critical Capabilities note solves one of the eternal dilemmas of looking at a MQ, which is trying to figure out which vendors are highly rated for the particular business need that you have, since, as I want to re-iterate again, a MQ niche player may be do the exact thing you need in a vastly more awesome fashion than a vendor rated a leader. Critical Capabilities notes break things down feature-by-feature.
In the meantime, for more on choosing a cloud infrastructure provider, Gartner clients should also look at some of my other notes:
- How to Select a Cloud Computing Infrastructure Provider
- Toolkit: Comparing Cloud Computing Infrastructure Providers
- Toolkit: Estimating the Cost of Cloud Infrastructure
For cloud infrastructure service providers: We may expand the number of vendors we evaluate for the Critical Capabilities note. If you’ve never briefed us before, we’d welcome you to do so now; schedule a briefing with myself, Ted Chamberlin, and Mike Spink (a brand-new colleague in Europe).
How not to use a Magic Quadrant
The Web hosting Magic Quadrant is currently in editing, the culmination of a six-month process (despite my strenuous efforts to keep it to four months). Many, many client conversations, reference calls, and vendor discussions later, we arrive at the demonstration of a constant challenge: the user tendency to misinterpret the Magic Quadrant, and the correlating vendor tendency to become obsessive about which quadrant they’re placed in.
Even though Gartner has an extensive explanation of the Magic Quadrant methodology on our website, vendors and users alike tend to oversimplify what it means. So a complex methodology ends up translating down to something like this:

But the MQ isn’t intended to be used this way. Just because a vendor isn’t listed as a Leader doesn’t mean that they suck. It doesn’t mean that they don’t have enterprise clients, that those clients don’t like them, that their product sucks, that they don’t routinely beat out Leaders for business, or, most importantly, that we wouldn’t recommend them or that you shouldn’t use them.
The MQ reflects the overall position of a vendor within an entire market. An MQ leader tends to do well at a broad selection of products/services within that market, but is not necessarily the best at any particular product/service within that market. And even the vendor who is typically best at something might not be the right vendor for you, especially if your profile or use case deviates significantly from the “typical”.
I recognize, of course, that one of the reasons that people look at visual tools like the MQ is that they want to rapidly cull down the number of vendors in the market, in order to make a short-list. I’m not naive about the fact that users will say things like, “We will only use Leaders” or “We won’t use a Niche Player”. However, this is explicitly what the MQ is not designed to do. It’s incredibly important to match your needs to what a vendor is good at, and you have to read the text of the MQ in order to understand that. Also, there may be vendors who are too small or too need-specific to have qualified to be on the MQ, who shouldn’t be overlooked.
Also, an MQ reflects only a tiny percentage of what an analyst actually knows about the vendor. Its beauty is that it reduces a ton of quantified specific ratings (nearly 5 dozen, in the case of my upcoming MQ) to a point on a graph, and a pile of qualitative data to somewhere between six and ten one-or-two-sentence bullet points about a vendor. It’s convenient reference material that’s produced by an exhaustive (and exhausting) process, but it’s not necessarily the best medium for expressing an analyst’s nuanced opinions about a vendor.
I say this in advance of the Web hosting MQ’s release: In general, the greater the breadth of your needs, or the more mainstream they are, the more likely it is that an MQ’s ratings are going to reflect your evaluation of the vendors. Vendors who specialize in just a single use case, like most of the emerging cloud vendors, have market placements that reflect that specialization, although they may serve that specific use case better than vendors who have broader product portfolios.
What makes for an effective MQ briefing?
My colleague Ted Chamberlin and I are currently finalizing the new Gartner Magic Quadrant for Web Hosting. This year, we’ve nearly doubled the number of providers on the MQ, adding a bunch of cloud providers who offer hosting services (i.e., providers who are cloud system infrastructure service providers, and who aren’t pure storage or backup).
The draft has gone out for vendor review, and these last few days have been occupied by more than a dozen conversations with vendors about where they’ve placed in the MQ. (No matter what, most vendors are convinced they should be further right and further up.) Over the course of these conversations, one clear pattern seems to be characterizing this year: We’re seeing lots of data presented in the feedback process that wasn’t presented as part of the MQ briefing or any previous briefing the vendor did with us.
I recognize the MQ can be a mysterious process to vendors. So here’s a couple of thoughts from the analyst side on what makes for effective MQ briefing content. These are by no means universal opinions, but may be shared by my colleagues who cover service businesses.
In brief, the execution axis is about what you’re doing now. The vision axis is about where you’re going. A set of definitions for the criteria on each axis are included with every vendor notification that begins the Magic Quadrant process. If you’re a vendor being considered for an MQ, you really want to read the criteria. We do not throw darts to determine vendor placement. Every vendor gets a numerical rating on every single one of those criteria, and a tool plots the dots. It’s a good idea to address each of those criteria in your briefing (or supplemental material, if you can’t fit in everything you need into the briefing).
We generally have reasonably good visibility into execution from our client base, but the less market presence you have, especially among Gartner’s typical client base (mid-size business to large enterprise, and tech companies), the less we’ve probably seen you in deals or have gotten feedback from your customers. Similarly, if you don’t have much in the way of a channel, there’s less of a chance any of your partners have talked to us about what they’re doing with you. Thus, your best use of briefing time for an MQ is to fill us in on what we don’t know about your company’s achievements — the things that aren’t readily culled from publicly-available information or talking to prospects, customers, and partners.
It’s useful to briefly summarize your company’s achievements over the last year — revenue growth, metrics showing improvements in various parts of the business, new product introductions, interesting customer wins, and so forth. Focus on the key trends of your business. Tell us what strategic initiatives you’ve undertaken and the ways they’ve contributed to your business. You can use this to help give us context to the things we’ve observed about you. We may, for instance, have observed that your customer service seems to have improved, but not know what specific measures you took to improve it. Telling us also helps us to judge how far along the curve you are with an initiative, which in turn helps us to advise our clients better and more accurately rate you.
Vision, on the other hand, is something that only you can really tell us about. Because this is where you’re going, rather than where you are now or where you’ve been, the amount of information you’re willing to disclose is likely to directly correlate to our judgement of your vision. A one-year, quarter-by-quarter roadmap is usually the best way to show us what you’re thinking; a two-year roadmap is even better. (Note that we do rate track record, so you don’t want to claim things that you aren’t going to deliver — you’ll essentially take a penalty next year if you failed to deliver on the roadmap.) We want to know what you think of the market and your place in it, but the very best way to demonstrate that you’re planning to do something exciting and different is to tell us what you’re expecting to do. (We can keep the specifics under NDA, although the more we can talk about publicly, the more we can tell our clients that if they choose you, there’ll be some really cool stuff you’ll be doing for them soon.) If you don’t disclose your initiatives, we’re forced to guess based on your general statements of direction, and generally we’re going to be conservative in our guesses, which probably means a lower rating than you might otherwise have been able to get.
The key thing to remember, though, is that if at all possible, an MQ briefing should be a summary and refresher, not an attempt to cram a year’s worth of information into an hour. If you’ve been doing routine briefings covering product updates and the launch of key initiatives, you can skip all that in an MQ briefing, and focus on presenting the metrics and key achievements that show what you’ve done, and the roadmap that shows where you’re going. Note that you don’t have to be a client in order to conduct briefings. If MQ placement or analyst recommendations are important to your business, keep in mind that when you keep an analyst well-informed, you reap the benefit the whole year ’round in the hundreds or even thousands of conversations analysts have with your prospective customers, not just on the MQ itself.
The cloud computing forecast
John Treadway of Cloud Bzz asked my colleague Ben Pring, at our Outsourcing Summit, about how we derived our cloud forecast. Ben’s answer is apparently causing a bit of concern. I figured it might be useful for me to respond publicly, since I’m one of the authors of the forecast.
The full forecast document (clients only, sorry) contains a lot of different segments, which in turn make up the full market that we’ve termed “cloud computing”. We’ve forecasted each segment, along with subsegments within them. Those segments, and their subsegments, are Business Process Services (cloud-based advertising, e-commerce, HR, payments, and other); Applications (no subcategories; this is “cloud SaaS”); Application Infrastructure (platform and integration); and System Infrastructure (compute, storage, and backup).
Obviously, one argue whether or not it’s valid to include advertising revenue, but a key point that should not be missed is that in the trend towards the consumerization of IT, it is the advertiser that often implicitly pays for the consumer’s use of an IT service, rather than the consuer himself. Advertising revenue is a significant component of the overall market, part of the “cloud” phenomenon even if you don’t necessarily think of it as “computing”.
Because we offer highly granular breakouts within the forecast, those who are looking for specific details or who wish to classify the market in a particular way should be able to do so. If you want to define cloud computing as just typical notions of PaaS plus IaaS, for instance, you can probably simply take our platform, compute, and storage line-items and add them together.
Is it confusing to see the giant number with advertising included? It can be. I often start off descriptions of our forecast with, “This is a huge number, but you should note that a substantial percentage of these revenues are derived from online advertising.” and then drill down into a forecast for a particular segment or subsegment of audience interest.
Giant numbers can be splashily exciting on conference presentations, but pretty much anyone doing anything practical with the forecast (like trying to figure out their market opportunity) looks at a segment or even a subsegment.
Recent research
I’m at Gartner’s business continuity management summit (BCM2) this week, and my second talk, upcoming later this morning, is on the relevance of colocation and cloud computing (i.e., do-it-yourself external solutions) to disaster recovery.
My recent written research has been all focused on cloud, although plenty of my day to day client time has been dealing with more traditional services — colocation, data center leasing, managed hosting, CDN services. Yet, cloud remains a persistent hot topic, particularly since it’s now difficult to have a discussion about most of the other areas I cover without also getting into utility/cloud and future data center strategy.
Here’s what I’ve published recently:
How to Select a Cloud Computing Infrastructure Provider. This is a lengthy document that takes you methodically through the selection process of a provider for cloud infrastructure services, and provides an education in the sorts of options that are currently available. There’s an accompanying Toolkit: Comparing Cloud Computing Infrastructure Providers, which is a convenient spreadsheet for collecting all of this data for multiple providers, and scoring each of them according to your needs.
Cool Vendors in Cloud Computing System and Application Infrastructure, 2009. Our Cool Vendors notes highlight small companies that we think are doing something notable. These aren’t vendor recommendations, just a look at things that are interesting in the marketplace. This year’s selections were AppZero, Engine Yard, Enomaly, LongJump, ServePath (GoGrid), Vaultscape, and Voxel. (Note for the cynical: Cool Vendor status can’t be bought, in any way shape or form; client status is not at a consideration at any point, and these kinds of small vendors often don’t have the money to spend on research anyway.)
Key Issues for Managed and Professional Network Services, 2009. I’m not the primary author for this, but I contributed to the section on cloud-based services. This note is targeted at carriers and other network service providers, providing a broad overview of things they need to be thinking about in the next year.
I’m keeping egregiously busy. I recently did my yearly corporate work plan, showing my productivity metrics. I’ve already done a full year of work, based on our average productivity metrics, and it’s April. That’s the kind of year it’s been. It’s an exciting time in the market, though.
Gartner BCM summit pitches
I’ve just finished writing one of my presentations for Gartner’s Business Continuity Management Summit. My pitch is focused upon looking at colocation as well as the future of cloud infrastructure for disaster recovery purposes. (My other pitch at the conference is on network resiliency.)
When I started out to write this, I’d actually been expecting that some providers who had indicated that they’d have formal cloud DR services coming out shortly would be able to provide me with a briefing on what they were planning to offer. But that, unfortunately, turned out not to be the case in the end. So the pitch has been more focused on do-it-yourself cloud DR.
Lightweight DR services have appeared and disappeared from the market at an interesting rate ever since Inflow (many years and many acquisitions ago) began offering a service focused on smaller mid-market customers that couldn’t typically afford full-service DR solutions. It’s a natural complement to colocation (in fact, a substantial percentage of the people who use colo do it for a secondary site), and now, a natural complement to the cloud.